\u015eAM -Radyolojik fizik ve uzay bilimleri uzman\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Basil Sultan, depremleri tahmin etmenin \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011funu, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olu\u015fum mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n tektonik plakalar\u0131n birbirine hareketine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Sultan SANA’ya verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda: “Tektonik levhalar\u0131n hareketi genel olarak yava\u015ft\u0131r ve her y\u0131l 0,5 ila 10 cm aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fir. Gerilmi\u015f kaya katmanlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya aniden kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sal\u0131nan tutma \u201cgerilmeleri\u201d \u00fcretilir. Bu, onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k enerji toplaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olabilir” dedi.<\/p>\n
Sultan, bir depremin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol eden \u015feyin bu kayalar\u0131n kalitesi ve temas noktalar\u0131 oldu\u011funu, ancak kaya tabakas\u0131n\u0131n derinli\u011finin 100 km’yi bulmas\u0131 nedeniyle pek bilmedi\u011fimizi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Sultan, depremlerin yapay zeka veya yaz\u0131l\u0131m gibi modern teknolojilerle tahmin edilebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak, tahmin mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in depremin zaman i\u00e7inde ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k dalgalardan olu\u015ftu\u011funu bilmemiz gerekti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Sultan, birincil dalgan\u0131n \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir dalga oldu\u011funu ve fiziksel olarak boylamas\u0131na “s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma ve seyrelme dalgas\u0131” olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan birincil dalgadan daha az h\u0131zl\u0131 olan ve fiziksel olarak enine dalga “kayma dalgas\u0131” olarak tan\u0131mlanan ikincil dalgan\u0131n geldi\u011fini, ard\u0131ndan da en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131ma neden olan ve “L\u00f6f dalgas\u0131” ve “Rali dalgas\u0131” olmak \u00fczere iki temel tipten olu\u015fan y\u00fczey dalgas\u0131 gelir, dedi.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131, “\u00d6nceki tekniklerden farkl\u0131 olarak faylar\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131nda plakalar\u0131n hareketinden kaynaklanan hi\u00e7bir ses dalgas\u0131n\u0131 ihmal etmeden t\u00fcm ses ve sismik dalgalar\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda analiz etme yetene\u011fi ile kaydetmek ve analiz etmek i\u00e7in belirli sesleri se\u00e7en, karakterize edilen gelece\u011fi tahmin etmek i\u00e7in umut verici bir y\u00f6ntem var” dedi.<\/p>\n
Sultan; “Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, levhalar\u0131n yava\u015f kaymas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda yay\u0131lan ses dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n, maruz kald\u0131klar\u0131 bas\u0131n\u00e7 durumu ve \u00e7atlamadan \u00f6nce kalan s\u00fcre ve depremin meydana gelmesi ile yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili oldu\u011funu ke\u015ffettiler\u201d diyerek, deneyin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, algoritman\u0131n ses sinyali ile \u00e7atla\u011f\u0131n maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerilim ve \u00e7\u00f6kmeden \u00f6nce kalan s\u00fcre aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekterek, ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n, bu y\u00f6ntemin depremin olu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kalan s\u00fcreyi y\u00fczde onu ge\u00e7meyen bir hata pay\u0131 ile belirleyebilece\u011fine ve olu\u015fma an\u0131 yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fczde 2,5’a kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclebilece\u011fine inand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Sultan, depremden sonra devam eden sars\u0131nt\u0131larla ilgili olarak, art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n do\u011fal oldu\u011funu ve tektonik levhalar\u0131n stabilitesine bir tepki oldu\u011funu, ana depremden haftalar, aylar hatta y\u0131llar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sultan, Richter \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine g\u00f6re 6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olan depremin 5 derece b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deprem g\u00fcc\u00fcnden 32 kat, Richter \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine g\u00f6re 4 derece b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremden ise yakla\u015f\u0131k bin kat daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek Richter \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremi havaland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in Richter \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde 4’l\u00fck bin depreme ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131, Arap levhas\u0131n\u0131n hareketinin Anadolu levhas\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00f6n olarak neredeyse \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r Anadolu levhas\u0131na do\u011fru iki santimetre h\u0131zla hareket etti\u011fini belirterek, Anadolu Levhas\u0131 kuzeyde hareketi \u00e7ok yava\u015f olan Avrasya Levhas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken, bu da Anadolu Riftini sismik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok tehlikeli k\u0131lmakta oldu\u011funudd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Sultan, 6 \u015eubat’ta meydana gelen iki depremin muazzam bir enerji a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Lazkiye Kilis Fay\u0131’n\u0131 hareketlendirerek Richter’e g\u00f6re 6,4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir depreme yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na,<\/p>\n
K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz Fay\u0131’n\u0131 da hareket sonucu enerji ile doldurdu\u011funu ama bunu ne zaman deprem \u015feklinde, belki de ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 depremler \u015feklinde salaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bilinmedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Sultan, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz fay\u0131n\u0131n Arap levhas\u0131n\u0131 Afrika levhas\u0131ndan ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun her iki taraf\u0131ndaki hareketin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131lda yar\u0131m santimetre oran\u0131nda oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sultan, depreme e\u015flik eden \u0131\u015f\u0131klarla ilgili olarak, deprem \u00f6ncesi ve s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00fczerlerindeki y\u00fcksek bas\u0131n\u00e7 dolu dolomit ve riyolit gibi baz\u0131 kaya\u00e7 t\u00fcrlerindeki kimyasal bile\u015fikler s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131ndan olan peroksi ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n, oksijenin negatif elektrik y\u00fck\u00fc ile oksijen anyonlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle olu\u015ftu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Sultan, iyonla\u015fmadan sonra, iyonlar\u0131n kayalardaki \u00e7atlaklardan yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareket etti\u011fini ve atmosfere ula\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131nda \u0131\u015f\u0131k yayan bir plazmay\u0131 yans\u0131tan hava cepleri olu\u015fturabileceklerini belirterek bunun, sismolojideki bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma makalesinde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ba\u015fka bir a\u00e7\u0131klama oldu\u011funu, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda da yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirerek, elektrik hatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok kez titre\u015fiminden ve sallanmas\u0131ndan yay\u0131lan elektrikle ilgili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6ren bilim adamlar\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n